In Iraq, first get the troops out

The good news in Iraq is that things have at least not gotten any worse under President Bush's new "surge" strategy. The bad news is that no progress is being reported toward a structure where Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds would govern the country jointly.

My hope for the "surge" strategy is that it will create an exit point where the U.S. can withdraw its troops with some semblance of security in at least Baghdad. There should not be any expectation that this strategy will lead to the realization of President Bush's pre-invasion Utopian goal that Iraq become a "place where people can see that the Shia and the Sunni and the Kurds can get along in a federation" or that it serve as a "catalyst for change, positive change" in the region.

U.S. withdrawal may well lead to greater bloodshed in the short term. But it is clear that the U.S. military presence in Iraq is not moving the country toward peace. Military force cannot force sworn enemies to live together. If this is what President Bush wants, he will need to reach out to the religious communities in Iraq, using the religious communities in America.

The report that Middle East nations will gather in Egypt next month to discuss security issues involving Iraq is encouraging in that it appears to signal a greater willingness among surrounding states to take a more direct role in the Iraqi situation.

After the withdrawal of U.S. troops, the U.S. will need to continue its involvement in Iraq through through non-military channels. Surrounding countries will also need to take a much more active role so as to steer the region away from a direct military confrontation between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, which is what many see as a worst-case scenario.